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Interview: Will OTT Platforms penetrate the south , like in Bollywood?
Posted on October 26, 2020
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Baradwaj Rangan 
brangan
October 27, 2020
The interview is up.
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Macaulay Perapulla
October 27, 2020
For a moment, I thought you would play with the title that was so salivating with your punning mind. How did you miss this?
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TamilThanos
October 28, 2020
What was the number that Vijay mentioned for total households Amazon prime has penetrated? That particular part wasn’t clear.
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TamilThanos
October 28, 2020
It’s peculiar that all of them seem to stress on lack of fame and glory. Didn’t Malayalam cinema just prove that you can get all the glory through OTT? Also, I think OTT is here to stay no matter the debates. Amazon and Netflix have so much cash flow that they can flood their platforms with enough content to make viewers stop going to theatres. People would still throng the theatres for star movies but for how long? The era of superstars is probably over after the current generation. With rising ticket prices and reducing footfalls, it is not economically feasible for industries to have a star. All this would eventually mean OTT is the way ahead with minimal releases in theatres. The producers always recoup their investment and earn a tiny profit. It’s the distributors and exhibitors who are going to be wiped away in the new model.
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Madan
October 28, 2020
OTT is definitely here to stay. The question is what it means for the star system. I don’t think OTT can support splurging 50-100 crores just to pay the star. OTT will favour content that viewers like rather than the buzz driven theatre model. It’s what I suggested in my write up for FC. If people don’t come back to theatres, forget about making 1-2 billion dollars off tentpoles as Hollywood currently does. Everyone will have to settle for less while, yes, distributors and exhibitors will get decimated.
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Madan
October 28, 2020
Link to the article:
https://www.filmcompanion.in/readers-articles/cinema-reopen-india-what-will-the-new-normal-really-mean-theatres-multiplex-ott-streaming/
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Naren
October 28, 2020
Anyone who has studied marketing wud know that the fundamental strategy is STP – Segmentation, Targeting and Positioning. This is the only way the OTT model can survive, let alone thrive. This means that their algorithmic ranking and display of content lists and search results have to b geographically and demographically curated. This is the only way one can know what does well in the urban and rural areas and in which cities. But Vijay has been elusive throughout about data transparency. So, have to c them come up with a solution for that.
Prabhu mentioned that the device costs are coming down drastically and that anyone can afford a decent gadget these days. I mentioned something similar in another post here containing the interview of Taapsee and Parvathy. I said that if home theatre pricings are going to c a drop then that wud b a major disruptor over time. But as far as piracy goes, it holds true for streaming services too. Streaming content can b ripped too. Why pay 200/month and watch only a few or none at all when one can just download as and when needed?! The opportunity cost of the piracy option is negligible. So, may be if they remove the subscription model for movies and have them as pay-per-view then that might neutralise the opportunity cost of piracy.
I don’t understand why no one is talking about TV shows. BR, u were amazed at the amount of TV being consumed, from the post on “The Wire”. The producers cud make a 2 or 3 year contract with both the actors and the streaming services to make a worthy show spanning the respective number of seasons. This way the OTT service cud reserve the yearly subscription model for the shows and the producers cud c a steady stream of revenue if the audience get invested in those shows. The creators wud b pushed further to give content of ever-increasing quality. But instead everyone is focused only on movies which is a OPOS [One Pot One Shot] move. The average amount of data streamed for a movie is just 2 hour-long episodes and one season alone can have upto 10 episodes before the law of diminishing marginal returns kicks in. GoT started diminishing the returns after the first two seasons and yet the production cost of their final season was as big as a Bruckheimer movie.
As far as the creators’ sentiments go, the psychology has existed ever since the early days of TV. Movie actors and creators here have always looked down upon TV content and that it’s a huge step down for their stardom. They probably were right and still r to a certain extent, given the quality of the mega serials on TV. But they shud have done this a while ago or atleast now they shud realise that OTT is not the same as TV and that it has a much deeper global reach. But if u look at Hollywood many major stars have emerged from TV shows or have become popular due to TV shows. Brad Pitt, Leonardo Di Caprio, Tom Hanks, Ron Howard, Robin Williams etc. have all been involved in TV shows at some point or the other. Even now . . . David Fincher [started with music videos], Seth Rogen and other movie directors direct episodes, if not the entire show.
Even if we get a vaccine soon [BIG IF because Soumya Swaminathan says rigorous distancing and masking until 2022 for the vaccines to scale up and possible return to pre-covid times likely only by 2024], the economical damage that this pandemic has done has long term consequences. Many revenue streams r shared to a great extent or r being completely redirected towards health care costs now and we all know now the level of incompetence of our health care system. So if the governments r smart then they’d start investing more on health care and research in the future and this means an economic strain for which none of them r prepared. Given such an economy and the rapidly decreasing per-capita income, austerity wud b a lifestyle choice for everyone for the forseeable future. They keep talking about the “theatre experience” for the audience. But from the audience perspective it goes like this . . . ticket costs, transportaion costs [public/private], parking costs, theatre food costs. The average consumer wud seriously start putting the cost-benefit analysis under a microscope. To bear all the above mentioned costs and suffer the grief of watching a bad movie, prolonged queues in and out of the parking lots [malls r worse] or even the disturbances from all the noises from the young crowd wud become significant factors now.
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Yajiv
October 28, 2020
@Madan:
That’s a great piece. Thoroughly enjoyed it
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Aman Basha
October 28, 2020
I think this is all overdrive, the film industry has always thrived on hyperbole. One hit and they jump like they got a formula to strike gold, Bahubali works so people think the public wants to see epics and is not at all interested in anything, yet films like Thugs, Saaho, 2.0, Panipat, Kalank either underperform or massively flop.
@Madan: This ‘end of theatres’ is another hyperbole. Seriously, it isn’t as though only theatres are affected, everything from amusement parks to circuses to shopping malls to food delivery and restaurants have had losses, arguably the highest since they are non essential services. For people who think OTT is the way, just look at the statistics:
Not including intersection of subscribers, that’s still not a very big number especially since it’s IPL season. Highest viewership is for MX Player which is free.
Again about Tenet, the last Nolan film, Dunkirk made $546 million while Tenet made $321 million, but then there are territories where there haven’t been complete releases or where COVID was still raging. It is also true that Tenet is Nolan’s least positively reviewed film. If they expected a proper gross even then, they are foolish and I’m prone to believe it was meant as a gamble, based on brand Nolan. China has had major releases and theatrical footfalls have been encouraging. The overseas box office was considered pretty good as well, it was the US collections that were disappointing.
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Madan
October 28, 2020
Thanks Yajiv.
Aman:
1) Re: “amusement parks and circuses are also shut” – Yes but you cannot have a rollercoaster ride at home. You CAN watch a movie on the streaming app. Of course, you as a cinephile will argue that is not the same thing. Let me tell you what is also not the same thing. Listening to music on Google/Youtube/Amazon apps as compared to listening to the CD. How many people today do you know who even maintain CD collections? I do but I am in a very small minority. If you look at data from even five years back, many more CDs were sold compared to today. The decline won’t be comparable for cinemas because the large screen does offer a viewing experience that you don’t get in OTT. BUT OTOH you can watch a movie on OTT as many times as you want whereas a cinema ticket is a one time experience and unrepeatable.
2) Regarding the stats you mentioned, well, when you add them up, you get 4 crore subscribers. Considering most households would rotate a single subscription among the family members, you may be looking at 10-15 crore viewers. That is a much larger number of the actual movie watching market than you may realise. People have this erroneous impression that India is a market of 1 billion people. That is only the case for the bare basics. As you go higher up the price point, the actual market shrinks and shrinks. For multiplexes, 10-15 crore is pretty much the market they are targeting. That is, those among the big cities who can afford to buy 300-400 rupee tickets.
3) There is ANOTHER further issue. Even if you wanted to reach 50-60 crore people with cinema halls, you can’t. There just aren’t that many screens in India. Only 8500 compared to 40000 in USA.
https://www.businessinsider.in/india-produces-the-largest-number-of-films-in-the-world-but-a-large-section-of-its-population-still-doesnt-have-access-to-cinema-screens/articleshow/67272159.cms
By the way, not only cinema halls, OTT will bleed into TV channels too. It’s why Star moved early with its Hotstar app to capture the space itself rather than face an extinction level event ten years down the line. That’s why Hotstar is the top OTT player in India by far.
It is not a given that cinema halls will die out but the hunky-doryness in the industry about people just flocking back to the theaters in the same numbers as before is also wishful thinking. There is going to be a disruption. I would say there already has been. And the industry will have to adapt. They will have to make better content and cut down fees that boost star egos. It’s not a bad thing in THAT sense. The pay gap between script writers and actors could finally start to reduce as it should.
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Srinivas R
October 28, 2020
@Madan – Your #2 – so, so true, so many MNCs lured to Indian markets with promise of a populous market only to find that, unless you are entry level are just above, there just isn’t much of a market.(e,g, cars sub 5 Lakhs priced car is the largest segment even today)
OTT is definitely a disruption of the STAR system. I sincerely hope bloated star renumerations are challenged post OTT, first step towards good content.
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Sam
October 29, 2020
I believe whoever decided that going to theatres wasn’t worth it (most of the 30-35+ population/families with kids etc.) have already done so and are already consuming content on tv/laptops in legal or pirated forms. Regarding repeat watch advantage with OTT – I feel repeat watch has drastically reduced these days (due to unlimited availability of content and other distractions like social media). Most of my friends plainly decline to watch repeat content :).
I also think we’re overblowing the impact of OTT. We need to look at markets where OTT is mature (US for one) and the theatrical ticket sales/box office has been pretty consistent (barring 2020).(Source: https://www.the-numbers.com/market/) I believe both forms will co-exist. I feel TV channels might have more impact due to OTT than theaters. Again, assuming we’ll get to somewhat of a normal mid-next year with vaccines and herd immunity
Btw, I’m all for significantly better pay for script writers/ technicians and less pay for top actors, but it’s mostly a free market and as long as our ultimate stars continue to have super strong openings, not much will change w.r.t star salaries…
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brangan
October 29, 2020
Part 2 (with audience Q and A) is up.
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Naren
October 29, 2020
Part 2
No one has even figured out yet as to how to best fit the OTT services into the economy but they’re already worried and arguing about it replacing movie theatres!!! If a replacement shud happen that wud b because of the inherent flaws in the theatre business model as Suresh Babu pointed out the drastic reduction in the number of theatres in a span of not more than 20 years. It’d also b the byproduct of an unforeseen external factor . . . COVID. I don’t understand how they got the idea that one is being pitted against the other.
Vijay is being even more shady with the responses in this. I mean their rigid framework of content selection is so good that they exhibited gems like Ponmagal Vandhaal, Penguin, Nishabdham and PPK?! Also, PPK is so uplifting that they decided that this is what people need during these times and so made an exception to produce it themselves?! What kind of justification is that?!
Recommender systems r a dime a dozen these days and none of the stochastic analyses or heuristic algorithms have been remarkably successful in predicting consumer behaviour so far, be it in social media ads or YouTube/Spotify etc. recommendations. I mean Zuckerberg built a music player to analyse people’s taste in music and make recommendations. This was even before Facebook. One shud read “Predictably Irrational” by Dan Ariely to get an inkling of consumer behaviour. Steve Jobs had a similar attitude of deciding what’s good for people and that attitude is still carried on in Apple. Elon Musk also has a similar attitude and that’s one of the reasons why he scoffs at people like Sendhil Mullainathan. Vijay mentioned that a lot of science is involved in recommendations . . . was he trying to answer a question or sneak in a product marketing strategy?!
BR, is there anyway to get someone from Netflix and/or Hotstar to talk about their approach?! Similarly, if u can get the regional OTT players to talk, we can get a well rounded perspective on the OTT market.
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Madan
October 29, 2020
“I don’t understand how they got the idea that one is being pitted against the other” – Because the theatre model has allowed big production houses for long to sell territories to distributors at massive rates and pass on the risk. As I argued in my write up, there is no business model yet where they can make the same gross for movies off OTT and TV rights alone as they do from theater collections. This makes the big players sweat.
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Aman Basha
October 29, 2020
https://www.bollywoodhungama.com/news/features/explosive-single-screen-exhibitors-slam-bollywood-urge-make-pan-india-commercial-films-part-1/
https://www.bollywoodhungama.com/news/features/explosive-single-screen-exhibitors-slam-bollywood-emphasize-rohit-shetty-not-vishal-bhardwaj-type-cinema-part-2/
Single screen exhibitors have far larger and similar complaints as the audience does (at least WRT to the Hindi film industry), but this portion is a standout favorite:
“Gumreet Singh also mentions that Emraan Hashmi was a hit among the crowd. He reveals, “Emraan was a mass star and had a huge fan following but he ruined it with his choice of films. I still remember once I was in my theatre lobby and a standee was put up of a then upcoming Emraan Hashmi film. A couple of teenaged school kids saw the standee and one of them asked the other ‘Oye, yeh harami ki bhi picture aa rahi hai…zara dekh kab aa rahi hai’. This was his image which helped him become so huge among the masses!” He then narrates one more interesting incident, “I still remember in Baadshaho, jab Ajay Devgn ki entry hui, tab taaliyaan aur seetiyaan baji. Lekin Emraan Hashmi ki entry mein hall goonj utha! Even today, if he does a well-made film where he’s playing a harami, he’ll work big time for sure.”
ROTFLMAO 🙂 🙂
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TamilThanos
October 29, 2020
@Naren, rigid framework for content selection doesn’t really mean good movies, does it? If you look at Netflix too, most of its shows or movies are average. They also seem to cancel good shows after a couple of months. The content selection framework at this point is mainly to pull in more viewers rather than sustaining them with quality movies (which is probably going to be the focus later). For instance, a reason to purchase Pon Magal Vandhal could be an algorithm that decided to scrape of Youtube videos and found Hindi dubbed starring Jyotika having millions of views?
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Naren
October 30, 2020
That makes it stardom over quality, contrary to Vijay’s claims. Self-contradictory, don’t u think?!
Ponmagal Vandhaal – Jyothika
Penguin – Karthik Subbaraj and Keerthy Suresh
Nishabdham – Madhavan and Anushka
PPK – Myriad of stars and directors.
Netflix is well established already in other geographies they started long ago and we don’t know how they did. We r an emerging and more importantly diversified market in its nascent stage and that’s why one has to be methodical and surgical right from the start. Market penetration is a crucial stage and one has to set the precedent in accordance with their claims or the viewers get the wrong message and hence have different expectations. If they’re using just stardom then it’s not any different from the theatres. It’d b the same crowd redirected here and OTT becomes a substitute for theatres and eventually a probable replacement. There’s an untapped set of OTT audience [local and diaspora] who r exposed to a plethora of international content and hence they expect nothing but quality. Stardom doesn’t interest them at all. If this crowd can b captured then maybe they’ll open up with subtitles to foreign audience.
If the creators don’t challenge and push the audience for better quality content then the audience remain homeostatic.
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abishekspeare
October 30, 2020
Great interview, BR, but why are there toooooo many ads in between? Usually there’s just one or two. This frequently cuts the flow.
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Yajiv
October 31, 2020
@abishekspeare:
You can use a browser adblocker (BR probably won’t like me saying this tho!)
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