AND THE WINNER (MOST LIKELY) IS…
JAN 22, 2010 – BEFORE I BEGIN MY SHAKY PREDICTIONS for the Oscars based on the just-awarded Golden Globes, do allow me a rant on the latter. With due respect to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association – and with much gratitude for their lenient attitudes about the consumption of alcohol within the premises, which makes for a looser, lighter ceremony than the stuffy Oscars – how can anyone take seriously an awards roster that has two categories (Comedy and Drama) for Picture, Actor and Actress, but only one each for Director and Screenplay?
If anything, shouldn’t the writing and the directing of a dramatic film be a distinctly different task than the corresponding functions in a comedic enterprise? So an actor is recognised, separately, for skills in comedy and drama, while the people who put those comic/dramatic lines in their mouths and devise the comic/dramatic situations around them are lumped together as one miserable bunch? Phew! Now that I feel lighter, let’s get on with the hopefuls in the Big Five categories, shall we?
Best Picture: The Golden Globe for Best Picture (Drama) went to (what else?) Avatar, while The Hangover scored an unexpected win for Best Picture (Musical/Comedy). The Oscars have always opted for heavy-duty, world-embracing, eco-message-mongering dramas – I guess it makes the voters feel they’re compensating for the million-dollar homes they lounge in – and they will recognise Avatar, for its visual bravado, for James Cameron’s ballsy risk-taking, and to celebrate a film that single-handedly brought the world back to the theatres in a recession economy.
Best Director: The Globe went to James Cameron, and there’s no reason to bet against the King of the World at the Oscars – especially since Best Director almost always goes hand-in-hand with Best Picture.
Best Actor: The Golden Globe for Best Actor (Musical/Comedy) went to everyone’s favourite, Robert Downey, Jr. (Sherlock Holmes), but it doesn’t take the super-sleuth’s powers of deduction to predict that Jeff Bridges (who won Best Actor, Drama) is the Oscar favourite. He’s been around far too long and awarded far too little, and this is his year. Sorry George Clooney!
Best Actress: Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia) competed against Meryl Streep (It’s Complicated) and won Best Actress (Musical/Comedy). But I have a hunch that the Best Actress (Drama), namely Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), will be reprising her win at the Oscars. Call it the Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich syndrome – an actress that everyone likes and who’s paid her dues, and has contributed enormously to the economy with two big blockbusters (especially relative to cost) is in no way going to be ignored in favour of a grande dame who’s already won two Academy Awards.
Best Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air) won the Globe over Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell (District 9), Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker), Nancy Meyers (It’s Complicated) and Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds). My heart goes out to Tarantino, but his film will have to settle for Best Supporting Actor (Christoph Waltz) while Reitman and Turner pick up the nominal recognition for Up in the Air in one of the few categories that’ll survive the onslaught of Avatar.
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Baradwaj Rangan 
brangan
January 22, 2010
One of those obligatory, gun-to-the-head Oscar pieces…
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kanishk
January 22, 2010
Rangan…remember they’ve enlarged the competition for the best picture this year from five to ten!
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Udhav
January 22, 2010
Nice write up. I wouldn’t be surprised even if Avatar wins the best screenplay and direction.
Where is your AO review? Desperately waiting. BTW, I met you during the screening of Sherlock Holmes. Remember?
Just when you were about to leave after the movie.
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Mariya
January 22, 2010
Hello Sir,
I’m an ardent follower of your blogs. Each of your pieces are master pieces 🙂
How come you rarely comment about Tamil cinema? I was actually expecting you to do a review of Aayirathil Oruvan!
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Adithya
January 22, 2010
Oh yeah, I wonder what the “other” five would be if there are 10 nominations. Have a feeling The Hangover would sneak in and what about An Education? Not worthy top 5 because it’s non-American but with 10, they might just start noticing the greater movies from across the Atlantic.
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Adithya
January 22, 2010
Also heard really good reviews of A Serious Man
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Shankar
January 22, 2010
Baddy, I thought so… 🙂
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kanishk
January 22, 2010
Was meaning to add – Go “Hurt Locker” Have you seen it rangan?
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Mambazha Manidhan
January 22, 2010
District 9’s screenplay is terrific.I mean it’s just terrific !
As for Best Picture at Oscars, its gonna be The Hurt Locker. It’s this year’s Slumdog Millionaire.
Speaking of alcohol at the Globes, did you happen catch Ricky Gervais’s ownage as the host ?
Especially when he pointed to his beer and said ‘ I’d like a drink as much as the next man. Unless the next man … is…. MEL GIBSON !! ‘
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yossarian
January 22, 2010
I wish you had just written a longer rant instead of the nominations 🙂
Did you see The Hurt Locker? I saw it last week and was blown away; a brilliant no-nonsense movie. I hope it picks up an Oscar.
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Arun
January 22, 2010
Well, the queen might just have her say. With an endorsement from Cameron himself, Kathryn Bigelow could steal both the top prizes from Avatar.
With the kind of ovation he got at globes, I don’t see anybody other than Bridges winning the actors gold.
But, I am not so sure about animation.Coraline would be my pick, since both pixar and miyazaki’s efforts weren’t as good as their earlier works.
With Hanake developing into an auteur of sorts his Palm d’or winning The White Ribbon could win the Foreign Language category, but oscar is notorious for giving it to movies nobody is heard of.
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Shankar
January 22, 2010
Digression…I’ve now watched 2 weeks of this season’s “24”…the Keifer Sutherland counter terrorism based series. I had initial misgivings about it but I’m glad to see that Anil has a meaty part. Of course, he doesn’t get to do (not yet, atleast) what Keifer does and what he is used to doing in our worlds but his character does have some depth. It will be interesting to see how this role pans out and what other opportunities this might bring for him.
I do have some minor quibbles…I wish they got the casting of Anil’s family right…the daughter, brother, wife etc just don’t seem to relate nor fit as a family at all!! For most part, Anil’s dialogue delivery is apt though there were a few times when I thought he was trying too hard to fit in…
That aside, I think it’s a great start for him…besides, it does feel nice to watch him on the telly screen in a mainstream series!! 🙂
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Upamanyu
January 22, 2010
I don’t think Up in the Air can snatch the Oscar for screenplay from Inglourious Basterds. Up in the Air is adapted from a novel by Walter Kim. But Inglourious Basterds will be nominated in the Best Original Screenplay category. Thank the FSM, the Oscars have two categories for screenplay. The Best Original Screenplay category has so far been the least disappointing one. (The Academy did recognise Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Pulp Fiction, remember?) Let’s just hope Tarantino gets lucky this time as well.
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Just Another Film Buff
January 22, 2010
Best Comedy series: Golden Globe 2010.
What a farce! A genre-based award? No wonder Tarantino doesn’t win a prize. And they call it “golden globe” – the award is neither international, nor for quality cinema.
As for the Oscars, well, ditto. Best director isn’t going to be QT. Let’s see
1. Cameron for Avatar means big bucks for the Academy
2. Bigelow for THL means great drama for the ceremony – ex-spouses, one each with with best picture and best director statuette => TRP => money.
And yes, I predict The White Ribbon creating a record by winning the Palm D’or AND the Oscar (again drama here – another German film after The Tin Drum). Again a farce – TWR is a film that screams – “Look at me I’m in black and white. I’m high art. Only fools will not be able to see my intellectual rigor”.
I’m becoming cynical of every award out there. What self-congratulating exercises. And the WGA proves who the real Inglourious Basterds are. Humbug I say!
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Aditya Pant
January 23, 2010
Off-topic – What’s with Madhur Bhandarkar films and National Awards. Will we see Neil Nitin Mukesh getting best actor for Jail next year? urgh!!
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brangan
January 23, 2010
Udhav: Yup dude, remember you. Writing about AO next week — and NOT a review.
Mariya: I do write about Tamil cinema, in the “between reviews” columns.
Mambazha Manidhan: I kinda liked Gervais. He was funny in a very loopy Brit way. Wonder why others didn’t think he did a good job.
Shankar: I’ve not seen a single episode of 24. Is previous knowledge necessary to understand the new season?
Aditya Pant: PC for Fashion? 🙂 But then, it’s never a good idea to waste energy ranting about National Awards. They’re far too random.
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Shankar
January 23, 2010
Baddy, fans of the show may say otherwise, but I don’t think so. I started watching only this season…
The thing with 24 is that Keifer is the only constant for most part. The settings, the actors…everything changes from season to season. The general concept of counter terrosim remains but all the movnig parts change out. So, I feel it is easier to just merge in and start watching. Of course, there will be some references to the past that you may not immediately get, but you will, in due course.
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Praveen
January 24, 2010
Hi!
Why not write a piece on the National Awards that have just been announced?
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vijay
January 25, 2010
It is unfair that they are making you do these pieces.
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Shankar
January 25, 2010
Baddy, I forgot to add…you can actually watch the full episodes for a limited time after the actual telecast…
http://www.fox.com/24/
So, as of now, 4 episodes have been telecast…
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Adithya
January 25, 2010
@Shankar: Those on demand videos in a US channel’s website are never available in India.
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Shankar
January 26, 2010
Adithya, I’m sorry I was not aware of that…well, maybe somebody has uploaded clips on youtube then…
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Laura
January 26, 2010
Kathryn Bigelow ( The Hurt Locker) for best director ! Seriously, directing is directing the actors. Not making the animated figures move in one direction. If the Academy has any sense, it should go to Bigelow.
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moifightclub
January 27, 2010
The predictions are based on golden globes ?? Huh! Whats the point ? Have you seen all ? You didnt tell us that. what have you seen and what not ? Hurt locker ? Up in the air ?
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JJones
January 29, 2010
Anyone can make predictions so I see no point in this article. What would have made interesting reading are your thoughts on who you’d have liked to win…Maybe these 2 lists overlap big time or maybe this list is actually that of your personal choices..after all, most of everything you say these days goes way above my head.
Btw, how many of the so-called ‘big contenders’ have you actually seen BR? I sometimes get the feeling you read lists of a dozen other reputed critics and compile your own from them..
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