(by Aman Basha)
What Rahul and Priyanka ought to take from 1960s Indira Gandhi to get the Congress its groove back
An India suffers its worst crises since Independence, two years after a conflict at the border with Pakistan, there are still high tensions after a conflict with China, Hindu Muslim tensions rear their ugly head in horrific riots and farmers suffer as agriculture provides diminishing returns. Amidst this chaos, the Congress Party is at its lowest point till then, least number of Lok Sabha seats and states under its control, obituaries and post mortems being published all over while its leader is the latest scion of Nehru’s dynasty, chosen as there was no alternative, a leader who was always part of the Youth Congress leadership but had little to no administrative experience, not a reassurance to a country reeling under crises. This 50 year old leader’s Oxbridge education is little help as criticism is heaped for the lack of communication, seeming absence and further hampered by a dismissive nickname. Little seems to be going well for this leader as even senior party leaders join together to voice criticism.
Had anyone else faced the challenges Indira Gandhi was beset with as she ascended to the post of Prime Minister after Shastri’s sudden death in 1966, they would mostly fold or at best be a footnote. Yet Indira, long mocked as a Goongi Gudiya, soon raised her voice, taking control and transforming at once both how India practices its politics and the course of Indian history forever, becoming its most powerful prime minister.
There is a strange paradox in stating that Rahul Gandhi faces the same challenges Indira Gandhi did, for Rahul’s greatest challenge can be best summarized in the context of the past as what if…Indira Gandhi was born with literal balls and joined the BJP. Yet it seems just like how only Rajni was the right villain to match Rajni these days (in Endhiran/Robot), only an Indira rehash could beat another, difference being one Indira rehash (as practiced by Modi) is from the 70s, the time when the ordinary man from Gujarat took a dive into politics and the right Indira rehash to defeat him should be from the 60s, a time when Rahul Gandhi’s parents had married.
Ms. Gandhi had begun her political journey campaigning on behalf of her father’s party and her husband contesting from Rae Bareilly. While certainly charismatic and possessing a connection with the common man/woman, no one ever knew what she was ideologically. In fact, debate still goes on today whether her embrace of the left was her natural choice or a wily calculation.
Whatever it was, she was astute enough to realize that the country was taking a turn to the left and went along with the tide. Today, the tides of history push India towards the right, if not entirely in economics then at least in terms of culture (It is also telling of the state of Indian politics that the cultural left and right are explicitly associated with religions). For whatever reason, a perception has permeated into the common people that the Congress is not patriotic enough, that it sympathizes with Muslims but disrespects Hindus. This feeling is only hardened when there is such an obvious bit of pandering in Shiv Bhakti and jeanudharan, quite unlike Indira who was all too happy to cast herself in the image of Maa Durga vanquishing evil. The right mythological touch drove a Telugu Bahubali to record levels of success, the right religious metaphor and allusion can help bridge what is growing distance between Congress and the voter.
For all of Indira’s charisma and perceived popularity with the voter, her image too took a major hit in her first years as Prime Minister. As the positivity and good will towards Nehru’s daughter dissipated, she learned the hard way what a tough job she was put up to. A poor performance at the AICC meeting in Jaipur where her dramatic declaration only opened up more questions and protests till Kamaraj had to take over and restore order to the floor was only a trailer for the next Parliament session.
Though a star campaigner, she was a poor parliamentarian, turning silent in front of questions. The opposition only harangued her more and even the slips of paper passed by her party men could not stop her from faltering. It was this dismal performance that led Ram Lohia to affix the now infamous “Goongi Gudhiya” nickname.
Where I would be really stretching it is comparing the grandson’s foreign trips to Indira’s America visit. Both Indira and Rahul received a warmer reception abroad than in India, but had to reckon with swift backlash once they returned home. The backlash hit Indira, for acquiescing to the demands of the Americans and with Rahul, for a plethora of reasons with the most common being “not around when you were needed the most”. The first election campaign Indira led in 1967 brought the Congress down even further, to its lowest tally till then.
Embattled, weak and at her political low point, Indira soon made a stunning comeback. The signs were always there, even while in an election which clearly wouldn’t have gone well for the Congress, she still stuck on give a fight, in a relentless campaign covering 15,000 miles and hundreds of public meetings, even suffering hits from rocks on her nose. When she was seemingly cut down to size and pushed to a corner after the results, she put up the biggest fight. In May 1967, she announced a ten point program to further her turn left and slowly raised the pressure against her opponents while also securing new allies. It was in 1969 that Indira first became Indira, when she transformed what was till then and has been since, a simple and low intensity election for President as a referendum on her power and furthermore into an ideological contest, defeating her party’s official candidate (a first for a ruling party) for her own favorite. The rest is, as they say, history.
For all the bad press, criticism and bad press Rahul Gandhi has been subject to, the currents of time have favored him by bringing to the same juncture his grandmother was at before she ascended to her primal position. The stats and studies have come out explaining how the BJP has to better its performance in UP from 2017 to ensure its presidential candidate a win by itself in 2022. There is still six months for assembly elections in India’s biggest state and a chief minister who is widely seen as the next big thing for the BJP. Despite the chief minister’s popularity across the BJP national base, his own state has a much more mixed view.
It is true that the Congress has not only the state but a very hostile media to deal with that gives them little coverage, yet Indira, facing all these challenges and much more with the Syndicate, never backed down, campaigning so long and wide that nearly 20 million people had either seen or heard her. Even tightening the BJP’s win margin would do wonders to the morale of the despondent Congress cadre (or whatever is left of them).
While the BJP may still manage to swing the presidential election even in the case of losing UP, their plans, just like in 2019, might come to naught if faced with the wily political brilliance of Sharad Pawar. I do not profess to know what Mr. Pawar is thinking, of course no one except him ever really knows, but the incessant speculation points to his interest in contesting the presidential elections, but only if he’d win.
Making the UP election nail biting enough would hurt the BJP, a huge blow would be dislodging Yogi, but what would you make of a Prime Minister who despite controlling the Lok Sabha cannot get his presidential candidate elected easily?
More than Modi, 2022 will be about Rahul (and to that effect, Priyanka) Gandhi. This is their make-or-break moment, and by extension for the Congress as well. In the next 12 months, Rahul Gandhi must transform as his grandmother did, or he would merely remain a reminder of India’s past and not be the harbinger of the future course of India’s history.
brangan
August 24, 2021
Congrats, Aman, on being the 400th. And to everyone else, too.
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vijay
August 24, 2021
In an ideal world we wouldn’t have to choose between both these jokes of a party at the center. As for Rahul, he doesn’t even seem interested most of the time..
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Madan
August 24, 2021
Well written BUT…colour me skeptical.
I think the perception problem is quite insurmountable now for Rahul Gandhi. He is overexposed in the media and his imagine as a naive/novice bungler is firmly cemented in the minds of many. And unlike Indira Gandhi, this problem is very much by his own doing and not because voters are impossibly biased.
The main difference between the two is IG was already Congress President by late 50s and showed her ruthless streak by dismissing a democratically elected Communist govt in Kerala (the irony!). And she had served as I&B minister in Shastri’s govt. RG missed the chance to hold a Ministry in UPA2 when he could have and should have. His two year reign as Congress President ended in terrible defeat in the 2019 elections. So his credibility has already been DAMAGED in a way Indira’s was not. Indira was doubted by many but she had yet to prove them right barring small hiccups (which wouldn’t have been known to so many voters today the way RG’s flaws get spotlighted).
Let me tell you which current politician I am reminded of when I think of a dynastic scion gradually rising to the challenge and changing the people’s perception of him/her. Uddhav Thackeray. Son of a charismatic leader (albeit a dangerous rabble rouser at that), he was widely expected to flop, especially compared to his cousin who inherited his uncle’s oratory. He became CM almost accidentally, because BJP overplayed their hand under the overconfident ‘Punha Meech’ and squandered a resounding mandate in their favour. He was widely expected to fail. But he saw opportunity in crisis and earned his stripes managing the pandemic in Maharashtra. Let me issue a disclaimer here: the management of the second wave in particular has been much worse in the heartland than in greater Mumbai. So voters in the heartland may have a very different perception from the mainstream media. But at least in the image management game, he created his own version of mann-ki-baat with Facebook live sessions where he, like Modi, addressed his audience in vernacular. But unlike Modi, he always spoke about facts and coherent action points rather than invoking spectacular mythological metaphors. It is an approach that goes down well in this state, can’t speak for the others.
Uddhav has learnt how to harness power on the job. It is very difficult to see how Congress could get hold of power by accident in a similar fashion and, failing that, they would have to up their electioneering game exponentially to even stand a chance. The political challenges facing Rahul are much tougher than Indira’s in handling the syndicate of old, entitled men (none of whom wanted to let one of the others get the job). BJP is a ruthless political winning machine and speaks vernacular, again, creating a connect that Congress lacked at the best of times.
If Modi is Thatcher, then Congress needs their Blair/Clinton to win. That person could be Sachin Pilot but not a whole lot of others in the party and certainly not Rahul.
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Aman Basha
August 25, 2021
@Madan: I was thinking of Rahul Gandhi more in terms of the main campaigner. He could easily be what Sonia Gandhi was during UPA-1. During UPA-2, it was actually Sonia’s faltering health that paralyzed the government. Pilot is a dream candidate, OBC. young, experienced, married to a Kashmiri Muslim (Abdullah’s daughter to boot), but him rising so young would ruffle a lot of feathers. I think though to beat Modi, you need a non Yadav OBC with a humble background, clean strongman image and administrative experience. For that I’d go with Bhupesh Baghel or Ashok Gehlot.
Uddhav Thackeray has been quite a surprise, people didn’t give this government a year and it is amongst the most popular state governments already, and for a “moderate” Shiv Sena, he’s thrown Arnab into jail and is now detaining a central minister 🙂
Since you live in Mumbai, I have to ask, did Ajit Pawar join the BJP on his own that night or do you think it was a part of Sharad Pawar’s scheme?
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Satya
August 25, 2021
If Modi is Thatcher, then Congress needs their Blair/Clinton to win.
Spot on Madan. And congratulations to all the readers who have contributed to Reader’s Write in. Wish to see more of such.
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Madan
August 25, 2021
Gehlot would not be a bad choice but maybe too much of a low profile, no nonsense guy to win elections in today’s excessively loud political climate. Anand Sharma was the best bet from that perspective but again, for whatever reason, was either never encouraged or himself didn’t fancy a chance at the top job. I agree that Pilot is really young and would ruffle feathers but Cong needs a shakeup. And India being a relatively young nation in terms of demographics does need a relatively young and modern PM. Our political parties have to get beyond this entitlement mentality where veterans don’t want to let young and dynamic leaders rise.
“and for a “moderate” Shiv Sena, he’s thrown Arnab into jail and is now detaining a central minister” – Haha, exactly. Uddhav used to love wildlife photography and has photographed real tigers. So he behaves more like real tigers – silently ambushing ‘enemies’ as opposed to his father who roared all the time like a male lion. It is also a poisoned chalice for libs who are embracing a govt that is demonstrably more ‘authoritarian’ than Modi sarkar. Uddhav has reminded everyone that you can do stand up comedy about Modi but you can’t say a word about the ‘wagh’.
And as for Ajit Pawar, yes, I strongly believe this was a Trojan horse planted by his uncle to both get rid of the cases against Ajit and secure power.
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Naren
August 25, 2021
Aman, interesting piece.
Madan, IG did indeed suffer from a popularity issue amongst the party members to the extent of being expelled from the party itself. But IG had gumption and she hit back hard. This is when she ripped the party into two and formed an offshoot faction called Congress (R) . . . R for “Requisitionists”. That later became Congress (I) . . . I for Indira/India and then it finally became INC. Congress (O) then led by Kamaraj merged with the Right-Wing Janata Party. In 1977 she became very unpopular with the public but that was a lot more complex . . . her gross mismanagement of emergency, Sanjay Gandhi’s autocratic faction right under IG’s nose and the resulting excesses, both IG’s and SG’s tussle with the media and the resulting nationwide I&B suppression and the eventual media retaliation and so much more. Moreover it wasn’t just Kerala that experienced her ruthlessness, during the emergency TN being the most number of days [over a year] and Gujarat came under the President’s rule after the respective state governments were suspended.
On the other side, George Fernandes was under trial for the Baroda dynamite case. Chandrasekhar and others formed a large group and surrounded IG’s house and gheraoed her and so much more drama from the opposition as well. But despite all of these excesses, Fernandes won the election from within the jail cell and while under trial and 1977 became a monster defeat for IG. Morarji Desai who took over from Kamaraj became the 4th P.M. of India and the 1st non-congress P.M.
I’m not implying anything by this but didn’t Thatcher bring Britain back from the brink of an irrevocable economic crisis?! Wasn’t it her hard-nosed look at the country and the strong-arming of matters that brought the country back to its feet?!
It’s really funny that the mere mention of the words “Right-Wing” or “Ruthlessness” or “Hardline” etc. in this context seems to make people think of extremely bad things like dictatorship, fascism, genocide etc. While “Fascism” by definition is a right-wing concept, historically it has been a majority of the leftists and socialists who have been fascists and dictators. For example, Woodrow Wilson who was supposedly a “Progressive” democrat was the one who had KKK films played in the White House. I’m not saying that all the right-wingers were/are saints by any means but people being endemically comfortable with the leftist ideologies without even properly looking into either side seems funny to me. I mean, Kamaraj became a right-winger or maybe he was one right from the start. So does that make him a boogeyman now?
Sam Claflin who plays Oswald Mosley in Peaky Blinders has given a stellar performance so far. In season 5 he gives a very rousing speech to a small audience about him starting a new party called the “British Union of Fascists”. His performance made me dig a bit into the actual history and one bit of information that I came across is that he travelled around the world for political reasons and one of his trips was to India where he met Gandhi. The story goes that he and Gandhi had a great time together and that they both found things in common and hence had a good relationship. So does this mean that Gandhi was a fascist?!
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gnanaozhi
August 25, 2021
Aman, am quite frankly aghast at this revisionist bad history hagiographic post on one of the most if not the most destructive PM’s we have ever had. I do believe this was written in good faith, and in a similar vein will try and address some of the most glaring inaccuracies (all of it would be based on historical fact).
No, aside from Covid which arguably is the worst phase for our economy since 47, we are objectively not even remotely in our worst phase or even terrible phase.
Hindu Muslim riots you say? We have had 3, yes 3 riots from 2013-2021, UP, Delhi and Bengal. Total casuality count across all 3 combined is less than 100.
Do you know how many Muslims were killed in just Nellie in 3 hours? 2,500+
Do you know how many Hindus and Muslims were killed in Hyderabad (first under a Hyd state pogrom against Hindus then a pogrom against Muslims? 1,50,000 is the barest minimum estimate).
Lets stick to Indira’s time period, from 64-84, there were 6 Major riots resulting in 3,800 dead and another 8 instances of “massacres” (one sided butchery) resulting in another 1,426 (all official figures here for sake of consistency) killed. Total in the Indira period is 5,226 over 20 years. 261 killed every year in just these major incidences of communal violence.
Peaceful and secular Bengal alone saw 3 massacres including the Marichapji which officially only saw 2 killed but contemporary media and NGO estimates put it at 2,000-5,000. In Delhi itself Indira ordered the killings of 350-500 Sadhus by the police, and then buried it entirely. One could argue this was similar to the Red fort storming in Delhi, the only difference is le Iron lady ordered her police to machine gun the protestors.
So no sir, India was not a land of milk and honey then that suddenly communal violence is upon us. If anything by any and every objective yardstick, these are relatively the most peaceful times we have had in centuries.
Moving on to Indira and her brand of nasty, despicable, disgusting politics.
She perfected the art of divide and rule, dividing Hindus by caste, and offering sops to Muslims to gather their vote en bloc. She created monsters like Bhindranwale JUST so she could split the Akali vote in Punjab. Her sitting Home Minister and later “I will sweep the floor if madam asks me to” President Giani Zail Singh was tipping of Bhindranwale on police raids on him, covering up his murder spree while literally lying in the floor of the parliament that the govt had no connection with Bhindranwale. Which was a lie, because now we have actual receipts even to the earliest meetings Sanjay Gandhi funded Bhindranwale, and paid the bill for it.
In 67, the Cong lost a whopping 71 seats, and this at a time when there was practically no opposition to the INC. 71 they came back, but then knowing the outcome of Raj Narain vs State of UP, we all know just how badly Indira mata rigged elections. Not a conspiracy because the judgement that Gandhi rigged her own seat is what triggered the Emergency (another topic for another time), wholesale booth capturing, ballot stuffing was the norm across INC governed states.
She kept states in check not by political Machiavellianism but outright authoritarianism.
How you ask?
71 times Presidents rule was imposed on states (90% of it opposition run) during the 20 odd years she was in power. You want le Black day in democracy? Look up 20th – 28th June 77, madameji dismissed 10 state govts
Not hardcore enough? Look up 6-8th June 1980. Madameji dismissed 9 state govts, all of them had a clear majority.
Poor “dictator” Modi has imposed this 4 times in 7 years.
She won power by rigging elections wholesale (incl her own pocket borough) and held onto power by outright dismissing any opposition party or her own Cong leaders who got a bit too big for their birches (ask Sharad Pawar). You wanted to be CM? You played by her rules.
And no, Modi and Indira do not have the same background, not even remotely the same. She was born into power and wealth, Modi comes from obscure poverty. Nehru made her the INC president against the wishes of many of his contemporaries (who rightly accused him of nepotism), even before which she helped her father engineer instability and riots in Kerala, just to dismiss the legit govt of Namboodaripad.
Finally, no matter how much the no talent Rahul G or Priyanka G (whose only claim to fame is she sort of resembles Indira) are flogged, the people have spoken resoundingly, they are useless, have not ONE achievement that is not tied into their family name, have not shown the zeal to even reform their own party and their pliant media (the INC alone controls entire media houses, INC members control media houses like the HT juggernaut, so I wonder where this myth of a relentlessly hostile media comes from) keeps flogging the “Le Rahul has arrived” nonsense – As of May 2019 (when I last counted on a whim), there were 26 such articles from 2009 onwards.
I respect your right to your own political prerogatives, but please let us not deify a horrible monster like Indira. Her years truly were lost years -poverty rates rose, double digit inflation, horrific communal violence, terrifying caste violence, the SIkh problem, the rise of LTTE (funded and aided by her govt, as she wanted to show support to the Tamil cause to score points over the DMK) are all directly tied into her.
The only thing I will give her credit for is her deft foreign policy moves in 1971, those were a masterclass of deft moves.
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Madan
August 26, 2021
“I’m not implying anything by this” – Well, you kind of are. You are assuming that I call Thatcher and Modi fascists and that’s why I said Modi is India’s Thatcher. But I was simply riffing on much more ‘banal’ similarities, if you will.
Both were political outsiders and the occupation of their fathers was quite similar (grocer/tea seller). Where the right wing is traditionally the preserve of big business and aristocracy, they brought a small business/populist perspective to right wing politics which accounted for their huge popular appeal for all that they may have been polarizing figures.
And you said Thatcher brought Britain back from the brink but she did no such thing other than wonderful narrative management (which is what cements parallels with Modi for me). The British economy actually grew at a slower rate in the 80s than the 70s. Her ruthless conviction politics came at a price as the medicine was worse than the malady (that is, through several compounded errors, she created a notebandi-equivalent). But the fact that she made her own decisions rather than building a consensus in her cabinet and her powerful communication skills gave an illusory feeling of being in control to the electorate which they valued at a time when Labour was in disarray (again a similarity to Congress being a laughable shit show and thus enabling Modi’s consolidation of power). Both also relied on stirring up nationalist sentiments on the back of a military triumph (Falklands/Balakot) just before the election to tide over concerns over economic management. I think this is something well-off liberals underestimate – the poor/working class person’s desire for stability at the top and their patriotism/nationalism.
As for whether Indira was a fascist, well, I don’t believe in guilt by association so not for the reasons you mentioned. BUT somebody who imposes a brutal emergency over the weakest of pretexts does seem to meet the definition of fascism much better than strong right wing figures whose political success irks a minority liberal intelligensia (and as for her other crimes, gnanaozhi has laid it out in detail). This is not to say that Modi has not displayed an authoritarian streak from time to time but it doesn’t seem to be an aberrational event in the way libs paint it. More like the symptoms of a ‘democratic’ state with a constitution disfigured by repeated amendments to the point where it can no longer live up to its promise of free speech with reasonable safeguards. Congress cannot blame Modi for using the sedition powers from time to time when it was they who brought it back in the infancy of independent India and have since eschewed opportunities to repeal it.
In that light, the last 70 years narrative has a ring of truth to it in that for 70 years, most of which had Congress rule, THEY stood in the way of India becoming a full fledged democratic republic in the way the Constitution originally intended it to be. They sang phony odes to secularism while giving licence to party workers to hunt down Sikhs in their homes in the national capital. Their refusal till today to account for their misdeeds and turn the page keeps giving an alibi to the BJP to blame them for its own monumental failures of governance. Because the simple fact is the Congress always loved power more than it ever loved secularism or freedom. In that regard, they are not as different from BJP as people seem to think.
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Naren
August 26, 2021
gnanaozhi – Her rigging her own seat was a major cause of concern but I don’t think it contributed to the Emergency as much as it is being projected. Yes Janata Party, ABVP et al. protested her moves but they were neither loud enuf nor powerful enuf to cause something as big as an emergency. The protests did worry her but it was actually the 1974 All-India Railway Workers’ Strike [~50,000 from I.C.F., Madras alone] led by George Fernandes that sparked serious insecurities in her. Apparently many of the railway workers started double talks and the whole railway strike started weakening following her strong-arming of the situation. But it was Siddarth Shankar Ray who actually nudged her into calling an emergency.
Yes 1971 saw her making some master strokes. The yet again illegal immigration explosion in the Biden administration and the aftermath of the Afghan crisis again reminded me of IG and 1971. Pakistan was ripping apart “East Pakistan” and a barrage of refugees starting pouring into India. India in the 70s had a prolonged economic crisis and an oil crisis and she decided that the costs of a war wud b manageable in comparison to the costs of such a mass immigration and hence Bangladesh was created. It was mind-blowing to explore immigration policies and the actual costs involved and there was a time when I wud’ve never ever imagined that a full blown war wud actually cost the country lesser than this.
Yes she wanted to keep up appearances and was laissez faire in handling the Indo-Srilankan civil war. Her son paid the ultimate price for that.
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Enigma
August 26, 2021
Hey Aman, great write-up and good contributions from Madan , Gnanamozhi and others. I just had one question, as you guys live in India, you may be in a good position to answer. Why isn’t Shashi Tharoor not seen as a potential PM candidate? The guy is ideal – educated, credentialed, speaks well, liberal, modern. India’s international profile ( at least in the west) will improve if he gets to be the PM. It would be a shame if such a credentialed individual cannot get a shot at the top post.
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Madan
August 26, 2021
Enigma: I think the blunt answer, which North Indians would probably never accept, is that it is very difficult, if not near impossible, for a South Indian, especially a Keralite or a Tamilian (as there is the least Hindi affinity in these states), to become PM. I think even getting Modi to become PM from Gujarat is a big step forward for the electorate and a sign that the cowbelt states that essentially decide elections are prepared to look beyond the North. In future, a Marathi or Kannadiga politician moderately good at Hindi might stand a chance too.
But for Tharoor with his antiquated RP accent, it’s an uphill ride no matter his credentials because he is just way too posh for the electorate. And he is not without his blemishes. Don’t forget his cattle class jibe when he was asked to fly economy instead of business class during UPA2 days. Suppose he knows better than to repeat such mistakes now. Still…it’s hard to see how he could forge any connection with the masses. That may not be a very good way to select PMs but that’s what we’re stuck with.
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Naren
August 26, 2021
Madan, I understand why u think that and that’s my bad and I apologise for that. I was giving a general perception of people towards right-wingers. I didn’t lay my arguments out in a more organised fashion. When I said that I’m not implying anything by it I simply meant that I was not drawing parallels between Thatcher and Modi.
The 1981 budget was a highly controversial one for U.K. and caused riots and some party jumping. She apparently went the Milton Friedman way and established control over cash flow. Even economists claimed that there was no economic basis for the budget. Some of the elements were lowering of direct taxes on income, increasing indirect taxes, increasing interest rates to control inflation, 20% tax on North Sea Oil, increase in fuel duties etc. Despite all the opposition and party jumping the economy started showing signs of recovery by 1982. By 1983 inflation was at its lowest in over a decade. She later called it a rollback on socialism and making people realise that there was no state funds but the people who earned that for themselves. A budget that was accused of having the potential to create millions of poor and homeless people went in the other direction. As u said, it was a slow recovery but a recovery nevertheless. This pretty much cemented her 3rd re-election.
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Madan
August 26, 2021
Naren: The problem is it was a recovery from a recession her policies engineered. It was argued as the only way to end stagflation in the UK but it fundamentally restructured their economy away from manufacturing. So the results that followed when the economy did recover didn’t completely justify Thatcheronomics. It was a modest success at best and nothing like the incredible juggernaut that she or her supporters made it out to be. In that regard, again, she is similar to Modi and his acolytes; just the methods are more sophisticated and of course an RP accent delivered in a stentorian voice adds more weight in turn. I would also add that the events that led to Brexit essentially have their origin in the Thatcher-engineered downturn that bled the Northern part of England dry of jobs. In the new service-oriented paradigm, cities had an upturn to varying degrees but ‘Little England’ never recovered. It’s not dissimilar to the script that played out in the US too albeit with the US economy never being nationalised to any comparable degree to the UK, the restructuring was all done by corporate czars who pocketed the resulting profits as increased bonuses. Again, the bill for that came due with Trumpism.
And it’s not like people didn’t try to warn against the consequences of such policies. I have a book written in 1999 by Thomas F O’ Boyle titled At any cost: Jack Welch, GE and the pursuit of profit. He talked about how the newly unemployed were turning to right wing militia. There was just a lack of right wing populists in national politics to solicit their votes until Trump did so. I am reproducing the extract where he talks about this:
“Today, although there’s a Wal-Mart on the outskirts of town, the factories and downtown stores are mostly gone. So, too, are the manufacturing jobs that supported whole families, and gone with them the faith in the future they represented. [] To some extent, then, it is not surprising that frustrated, angry men would turn out one snowy February night to hear Mark Koernke, one of the chief spokesmen of the country’s growing militia movement, [] No doubt some were passionate “gun people”; Meadville is in a mostly rural area where hunting remains a way of life. No doubt some were military castoffs, tax evaders, survivalists, misanthropes, anti-Semites or white supremacists. But some who heard Koernke’s message of hatred and distrust were another type of dispossessed – conservative, patriotic, God-fearing men who once voted for Ronald Reagan and once believed in the rules but now think they no longer apply. They are men who search for meaning in a world that has passed them by and doesn’t care about their welfare.”
The book and its author was dismissed as negative nancy-ing in 99. After all, Welch was supposed to be the perfect CEO. But the consequences of Welch’s compulsive restructuring and selling-off have been predictable, both for GE which is a pale shadow of the behemoth it once was and for USA.
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Aman Basha
August 26, 2021
Firstly, I’m very happy that the comments have not devolved into fights. This country is at a bad place and this is another lost decade. I could have written about why this country is becoming so desperate, rant about how it’s all so hopeless but I took this turn as I begun to read Katherine Frank’s great biography of Indira (which has now left me sure that Sanjay was an illegitimate child), I thought these comparisons were interesting so wrote a post on them.
@Madan: The problem is the Gandhis are not only the most well known; but also the glue for all the warring factions such as that have broken out now in both Punjab and Chhattisgarh. More than Gehlot, Baghel is a much stronger choice as he seems literally unshakeable in his state and has won the support of the RSS at different times. He’s also a good speaker and hasn’t lost control like Gehlot had with Pilot. With Pawar, I do think if UP is tight enough, the old man could pull off a coup.
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Srinivas R
August 26, 2021
@gnanaozhi – with you on not white washing Indra, but I can’t agree with the analysis that this is the most peaceful time ever etc. The constant dog whistle against Muslims, vocal demand for exclusion of Muslims in “Hindu” areas, be it bangle selling or Mehindi or what not. Turning “Jai Shri Ram” to a war cry for terrorizing Muslims. Open chants of “jab mulle ke sar katenge” etc. not too far from the parliment. Almost every media in their pocket. Arrest under UAPA for investigating and questioning Hatrhas rape case. I can go on… I don’t know how anyone can ignore the excesses of this govt and the pliable ecosystem they have built.
Unless Cong moves past RaGa and his family, there is no hope for Congress or India.
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Rahul
August 26, 2021
As Anurag Kashyap put it very succinctly, they wanted to give us Congress Mukt Bharat, but Amit Shah has become Sanjay Gandhi and Narendra Modi has become Indira Gandhi.
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Aman Basha
August 26, 2021
@gnanozhi: I never deified Indira, you can find out my opinion of Indira when I said Modi is 70s Indira. It was simply a hypothetical comparison between Indira with Rahul (and Priyanka) today and how they possibly can reinvent themselves. Bengal is not a Hindu Muslim riot, inter party clashes have been the culture of Bengal. Even Mamata was beaten up back in her day.
About the various riots carried out under Indira’s rule, except the 1984 Sikh riots, there is no instance of Congress workers participating in the riots the way the RSS did in 2002 Godhra, is there? Nelle massacre was something Indira regretted.
The fact is Indira deeply believed in secularism and kept the Sikh bodyguards despite warnings. She died on her convictions, if that isn’t a Iron Lady, then what is? Rajiv was not in power during the riots, he did make that disgusting comment but Rahul Gandhi has apologized for 1984. Also Manmohan was made PM to make up for that. You could say the same for Kalam in 2002, but that was mainly due to Chandrababu Naidu and others’ pressure.
To compare Modi with Indira was a mistake, it’s like Bhai fans calling him the biggest star in Hindi Cinema when Bhai is popular mostly in the North single screens whereas Amitabh had pan India appeal. In fact, it’s interesting that Bhai and Modi both became popular at the same time. The court case you cite never convicted her for ballot stuffing; it was for using a government officer as her campaign manager and for speaking from a high rostrum built with Govt money.
I don’t like Indira Gandhi, but to not admit she was our most popular post independence national leader is disingenuous. The same 1971 when she swept the Lok Sabha, the DMK won back Tamil Nadu. You sound exactly like those who complain about EVM rigging.
“dividing Hindus by caste, and offering sops to Muslims to gather their vote en bloc”
Just like the BJP dividing non Yadav OBCs from Yadav OBCs? From when has offering sops to vote banks become the wrong thing in politics? Has the BJP never done it? Does it not happen across the world? Then what about uniting South and North by making them all vote for one person, i.e., Indira?
White Black relations were far better in 2019 than any other time, Black mobility was higher in 2019 than any other time, there were no racial riots or clashes like those that happened in earlier times, FDR never supported an anti lynching bill, but why is Trump then considered a racist? The dog whistles, the foghorns are unavoidable. Just to give an example, why during the Hyderabad municipal polls, when the BJP had a good chance with their all out campaign during high anti incumbency, did they bring Yogi Adityanath and start talking about changing Hyderabad’s name? I have personally witnessed the bigotry of the BJP and nothing can convince me otherwise.
Yes, Modi can never be as all powerful as Indira, but what he is doing is still dangerous, he is breaking the norms that were established to prevent another Indira. Anyhow, he is still pushing this country to its edge, unlike a Vajpayee who btw said Modi was not upholding Raj Dharma.
Also there is no evidence that Nehru made his daughter the Congress President, this is another urban myth like him not wanting Patel in his cabinet. He had to be pressured into dismissing the Kerala government by party members. It’s telling that the BJP seems to hate Nehru than Indira.
Modi has clearly forgotten his background when he was joking about families unable to marry off their daughters because of his stupid demonetization move. Indira, despite her wealth and privilege was never seen as elitist, in fact the Messiah of the poor. Anyhow, it’s only 7 years of Modi so far, let’s see how it goes ahead 🙂
Rahul Gandhi as Congress President was as successful as Narendra Modi is as prime minister. You talk of media houses, when the BJP has more funds than the next 12 parties combined, when Zee, India TV, Republic, Times Now are all in the BJP’s pockets. When people ask why is petrol so high, apparently it is a Congress conspiracy or we ought to shift to Afghanistan.
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hari
August 26, 2021
So we want RaGa to save Indians from Modi, vidinjidum.
As long as Congress supporters feel Rahul Gandhi as Congress President was as successful as Narendra Modi is as prime minister, then also vidinjidum.
Congress may probably need RaGa to stay afloat, not India.
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gnanaozhi
August 27, 2021
@aman,
No Cong leaders were guilty of participating in riots like “le Rss”?
My friend you really need to read real history.
Let me just take one example, the 69 Ahmedabad riots. The source for this is Justice Jagmohan commitee report for one.
The riots were engineered by a faction of the Cong that wanted to topple the Hiten Desai govt then in power (also a congreesi). The problem was, Desai decided to go with the syndicate and not with Indira which meant he had t to go. One of the ways to destabilise this govt was to engineer communal riots. Many a Cong (O) leader was directly implicated in the riots of 69.
Want more? Congress leaders were directly implicated also in Nellie, and Indira expressed regret? Are you kidding me? 2000 killed and you think “expressing regret” is an acceptable response?
Fun facts on Nellie, the state and centre was Cong run so please let’s not go into the “le Rss” bogeyman. Not even a SINGLE PERSON was convicted for this pogrom. Not One. 688 FIR’s, 300 chargesheets, ZERO convictions. Zero!
And no, Madame Indira didn’t express regret, in fact the T P Tiwary commitee report (only published in 2013 iirc, buried by the Cong til then) has telegrams sent by the District police to girl command and the DM 3 days before the massacre, but the police and administration did nothing.
When asked about this in Parliament she said “these things should not be stopped before they run their course”.
And bonus fun fact, the great secular icon Rajiv G, forgave All 300 of the Aasu members chargesheeted and this whole sordid episode was buried so much that even otherwise well informed people like yourself have no clue about it, and think Madame expressed regrets. Can you imagine Modi or the BJP doing even 1/1000th of any of this? You will be just as charitable I suppose?
We can then go into why the massacre which was tied into elections announced by Indira (see the paper by K Dasgupta & A Guha on this). The tldr is, Assam was in shambles, there was no state control, Aasu in collusion with the bureaucracy, police and local cong leaders were running amok.
1000’s of state employees were sacked on orders of Indira. The state was in near revolt and Indira was very strongly advised that an election then would mean not even 1/10th the voters would show up and there will be violence.
However, the key opposition parties except the Communists with drew from the polls in protest and Indira saw a golden opportunity to retain power easily.
INDIRA KILLED THOSE IN NELLIE BY ALL HER ACTIONS! and yet here we have a “madame expressed regret (which she didn’t even do), her son then pardoned all the killers.
I can go likewise into every riot in India since 47 and point to a direct dirty Cong hand. But then again I have read no less than a dozen enquiry commission reports and no less than half a dozen books on this subject so maybe you might be slightly better informed?
And finally no Cong party man or woman was involved like the RSS in 2002? Forgot the “big tree falls, earth shakes” moment of 1983?
I reiterate, Indira was an evil, fascist (the only one who comes close to fascism in India post 47), bloodthirsty monster. Anyone who even remotely thinks she is good either are very very poorly informed and have swallowed 3 decades of Congressi propaganda, or are deluded into thinking this by their current political position.
No disrespect meant to you, but your arguments are facile and lack any basis in real history.
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Madan
August 27, 2021
“As long as Congress supporters feel Rahul Gandhi as Congress President was as successful as Narendra Modi is as prime minister” – Yup that was a headscratcher. He was ‘successful’ only in the sense he managed to kill anti incumbency factor in an election that should have been at least a little tougher for Modi than it turned out to be. I met many people around that time (2019, leading up to the election) who said they were disappointed with Modi, having cast the vote for him in 2014, but were horrified by the thought of voting for Pappu. BJP supporters say Rahul Gandhi is the best batsman in their team and I can’t not agree.
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Aman Basha
August 27, 2021
The “Rahul Gandhi was as successful” was my own attempt to use hyperbole to put my point that both Modi and Rahul have failed in their positions. As I have said so many times, I am speaking of Rahul Gandhi purely as a campaigner. Back in 2013, he was contemplating putting up as PM candidate whichever CM would be re-elected. I don’t think he wants to take power but I also think that he ought to declare a PM face pre-emptively if so. The “will he, won’t he” annoys voters.
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Vishakha
August 27, 2021
This is a very interesting thread. I for one, was not aware of the Nellie massacre and reading about it in the comments above, makes me wonder, why the BJP do not bring this up at all. They keep going back to blaming Nehru and Gandhiji for everything, they have pappu-fied RaGa beyond redemption, they have criticized MMS as the silent PM – but do not bring up Indira much. Why?
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Anand Raghavan
August 27, 2021
For someone like me whose immediate and extended family support Modi despite so many missteps which they too acknowledge, it’s so hard to put out a convincing argument when am countered with the question of who is the alternative. They want to have a credible alternative face who will offer stable government and not want so many hands trying to grab the chair. And very clearly they say they dont want to see VP Singh-Chandrasekhar or Deva Gowda-IK Gujral type 1-1.5 yrs govt and a mid-term election looming again. So it’s upto the opposition to come-up with a united front and a face that people could believe in and vote for a change.
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Rahul
August 27, 2021
Vishakha, thats an interesting observation but if you look into the details you will find the answer. By the way, not just Nellie , the history of Congress is replete with such incidents. For example, look up Selva Judum.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salwa_Judum
In fact, if you ask me, if there is one good consequence of the rise of Hindu fascism in the country, it is the decimation of Congress.
Now coming back to why the BJP does not criticize Indira, it is because Modi and Shah fit the archetype of the abusive parent, or the benevolent dictator, who knows what is best for the populace, just like Indira Gandhi. The system was as hostile to the Muslims and the subaltern in the times of Indira (in spite of the Haj Subsidy, LOL) – what Modi and Shah have done is to bring that hostility to our living rooms , to our friends and family.AFSPA is another example. All parties have more or less the same view regarding it.
Another example from recent memory – Nodeep Kaur was brutally assaulted by Haryana police. It reminds me of Soni Sori. who was similarly tortured during Congress rule and then the Police officer was given a gallantry award.
BJP Supporters somehow think it is a gotcha to point out that Congress did similar or worse. The only difference is people weren’t falling over each other to defend the government in those times.
.
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Aman Basha
August 28, 2021
@gnanozhi: I’ve always enjoyed discussing with you given how fact and source heavy your comments are, but what you’ve put up in your comment is not a facile view of history, but an absolutely wrong one.
About the 69 Ahmedabad riots, I checked as much as I could, and found this from the Jagmohan report:
“There was not only a failure of intelligence and culpable failure to suppress the outbreak of violence but (also) deliberate attempts to suppress the truth from the Commission, especially the active participation in the riots of some RSS and Jana Sangh leaders.”
Even here, it was le RSS after all (they even claimed responsibility!). Now there was a report which blamed the Congress Government for “inaction” where they were simply too scared to open fire and sat on it, which is way different than Congress workers actively participating:
http://heritagetimes.in/gujarat-riots-congress-1969/
Khushwant Singh had this to say about the riots:
‘nine out of ten killed are Muslims. Nine out of ten homes and business establishments destroyed are Muslim homes or enterprises.’ Besides, the majority of those rendered homeless, and of those apprehended by the police, were also Muslim. ‘Is it any great wonder’, asked the writer, ‘that an Indian Muslim no longer feels secure in secular India? He feels discriminated against. He feels a second-class citizen.’
About Indira’s feelings on Nellie, here’s an excerpt from Shekhar Gupta’s article:
https://theprint.in/national-interest/indira-gandhi-100-still-rules-india/17000/
Next day she came to visit the spot. She stormed out of the helicopter as soon as the rotors stopped. But the dry sand they had churned from the post-winter floodplain swirled in the air. Mrs Gandhi covered her nose with her pallu but it didn’t hide her anger. “Teen hazar musalman mar gaye, iss ka kaun jawab dega, aap? (3,000 Muslims were killed. Who will be held accountable?),” she scolded R.V. Subramanian, then chief administrator of the state (as chief advisor to the governor) under President’s Rule. Then she found IGP (law and order) K.P.S. Gill. “Aap sab so rahe thhe kya?” (Were you all asleep?) Both listened in silence like contrite schoolboys.
I will have to do some more reading about Nellie and the Assam Accord before I make a comment. But also, I mentioned except the 1984 Sikh pogrom where Rahul Gandhi did accept responsibility and apologized. However, I still want to know what sources you used for the 69 massacre.
About the Congress vs the BJP, adding to what @Rahul said, the Congress play with fire and ideology to wield power, but the BJP wield power for ideology. If the BJP put Muslim candidates in some places (which even Shiv Sena did), they could have won a lot more seats, but they don’t, why? The same reason why the RSS didn’t help Vajpayee in 2004.
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Srinivas R
August 31, 2021
A few comments about ” there is no alternative to Modi”
1) You would think anyone not insistent on alienating people on the basis of religion and any one not promoting religious violence, whatever be their short fall, will be a good alternative.
2) In terms of economic growth, foreign policy, HDI, corruption, India has regressed since 2014. Our defense budget has declined, tax to gdp has declined. By any concievable measure India is in worse position than 2014, how is this a positive for Modi?
3) PVNR and ABV were part of a coalition govt. UPA 1 performed ceditably with a large coalition. So, this need for “stable” central leadership is a myth unfounded in reality. Both BJP and Cong wreck mayhem in a majority, i prefer a coalition govt.
4) The only reason BJP continues to hold sway is because over the last 25 years, they have eaten away at moderate Hindu base. They have successfully cultivated insecurity among Hindus to the extent, Hindus are willing to promote someone named Yati, who basically shames Hindu women to promote islamophobia. Hindus need to introspect what their religion is about and what they stand for instead of parroting the lie that there is no alternative to BJP.
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gnanaozhi
August 31, 2021
Quote /
I’ve always enjoyed discussing with you given how fact and source heavy your comments are, but what you’ve put up in your comment is not a facile view of history, but an absolutely wrong one.
About the 69 Ahmedabad riots, I checked as much as I could, and found this from the Jagmohan report:
End Quote
And I am willing to be corrected, my positions are not written in stone. That said,
Unsure of to the import of the excerpt from the Jagmohan report. The local intelligence WAS the Cong party controlled police. They ignored all warnings and memos filed (as was in Nellie). The Jagmohan report also talks about the role of local INC leaders.
Surprised you were able to get this online (as far as I know it is not available fully, as the INC buried it, just like the Shah Commission report), and only limited print copies exist but still the root of the issue is (as report in this report).
The then SP of A’hmbad police, one Desai iirc publicly ripped apart a copy of the Quran. This was the trigger. And the police came under? Hiten Desai. Who was Hiten Desai? The anti Indira CM who held a total majority.
This triggered a wave of Muslim protests, in which 3 people were beaten to death by the same police.
And then the other side, 2 Muslim police officials kick an idol of Krishna, triggering another wave of protests this time from the Hindus (I think a sanitised version of this is available in public domain)
What the media or mainstream historians wont tell you is that local INC (Indira) leaders worked with Jan Sangh 2nd rung leaders to create the HDRS. This link (which is what I was referring to) was reported in other later published books incl the one by Gyansham Shah on the A’hbad riots.
All of this directly lead to the sacking of the Hiten Shah Govt (over allegedly the President election, splitting of the previously united party in Guj and forming of power by the INC Indira bloc (INC O).
None of this is new though, this is TEXTBOOK Indira. She followed the same in Punjab (Bhindranwale), TN, UP and a whole host of places. Provide support surreptitiously to the worst of the elements, forment strife and then boom replace the govt. She wrote this playbook in Kerala when she dismissed the govt of EVS (will do a short write up on this in this forum) and perfected it as she grew older.
Once the riots started, it took on a life of its own.
Congress workers participated and lead mobs even in 2002 (many were found guilty), for you to make a claim that Cong workers did not participate in any riots is a massively bold claim.
About the Khushwant Singh quote – let me get this straight, Muslims are killed in a Cong run state (that had been run by the Cong continuously from 1947), when centre was Cong run (continuously from 1947) and yet the INC / Indira are not held responsible? So if riots break out tomorrow in say Andhra Pradesh or MP, you will say “Modi and BJP are not responsible”? Because that is exactly what you are saying.
You are taking away agency from the Cong and Indira entirely? Why was the SP who desecrated the Quran promoted under the later IG INC regime? These riots were engineered by the Indira arm of the INC to bring down the Hiten Desai govt and that is exactly what happened. The INC (O) gained power and never lost it after that.
That Shekhar Gupta bit about Indira – seriously? You are using a print media article about “madame being angry” as proof? Proof of what? She controlled the state, she controlled the centre, she loved to impose Presidents rule what stopped her from throwing the rule book on the perps? Why did her son forgive all the killers? Or are they given a free pass to do anything they want because htey are the secular, peace loving Gandhi-Nehrus?
Do you not see the impossibility of the position your argument is in?
In 1969 Guj, the Cong had been ruling the state for 2 decades, still was (but an anti Indira faction), ditto the power in Delhi and yet the riots are not Indira’s fault or INC’s fault.
In 1983 Nellie, the Cong had been ruling Assam for 35 years (except the 1 year under the Janata)? In Centre for like 30 odd years, the riots happen under central rule (it was during President’s rule) and here too Madame and her party are not culpable?
When exactly will you hold the INC responsible for their dastardly actions? Maybe when they like a comic book villain go muhuhahaha my plans are complete! And this is caught on video?
Let me flip this, if 3,000 Muslims are killed today in UP, would you be making the same “but Madame was angry” type arguments or would you be blaming the ruling govt and party front and centre? If it is the later, let me remind you that in the case of 1969, Nellie, Meerut, Op Polo etc you are in a contradictory position.
When did Rajiv G apologise for Nellie? Heck every single Cong CM in Assam has been raising they illegal Muslims bogeyman for decades before Nellie. Do you know that the NRC was first promised by Nehru in 1955 iirc? Again, are you forgiving Rajiv in issuing a pardon for the murderers of 2,500 civilians?
For my key sources please see the work by Ghansyam Shah, Communal riots in Guj (published sometime in the early 70’s)
Howard Spodek’s From Gandhi to Violence: The 1985 Ahmedabad Riots in Historical Perspective. Mind you, HE HATES the Hindu right, and even HE exposes very clearly the INC role in various riots in Guj including the 1969 one.
I haven’t read Paul Brass in a while (again, he hates the Hindu right), so can’t say for sure but I think he also talks about the INC role
Finally, the whole BJP won’t put up Muslim candidates bogeyman, why is the BJP responsible for this? If Muslims won’t vote the BJP, why would they waste a seat? Chicken and the egg scenario here. Maybe if Muslims started voting the BJP, they might field Muslim candidates.
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gnanaozhi
August 31, 2021
@ Vishaka – the simple reason is that despite being ultra hyped, the BJP IT Cell is dumb. They only do temporary “whatabout” rhetoric and Tweet what they think is clever stuff.
In reality what we need is a through examination and washing of the dirty linen the INC has buried so far.
And no, I am not using it as a rhetorical flourish, the INC has a nasty record of committing crimes, commissioning a enquiry and burying it.
Sample – The Report on the Razkar massacre, buried by Nehru till 2013, when it was quietly opened and then buried again.
The Neville Henderson report on the China border war debacle, buried by Nehru, is still buried to this day.
Pingle Jagmohan report on the 69 A’bad riots – buried by Indira, all physical copies destroyed during the emergency except the few in libraries abroad, and a few copies held by the BJP today
Shah Commission report on the excesses of the emergency – Again, Indira’s goons burned EVERY copy of the report, except 1 that was sneaked out of the country (Su Swamy takes credit for this btw, but your guess is as good as mine), reached a foreign library, and sometime in the mid 2000’s saw a reprint and is finally available for all citizens to read
TP Tewary report on the Nellie Massacre – was never tabled in the state assembly (which was by then in the Indira hands), buried entirely till copies resurfaced in the mid 2010’s. Ironically it was the RTI by the UPA that allowed this report to see light of day.
I can list half a dozen other reports on massacres, pogroms, corruption scandals etc that the Nehru Gandhi family simply and obnoxiously buried. And now they pretend as though their legacy is clean.
The BJP like I said is dumb as a bag of bricks, yes they got their electoral strategy in place but aside from that, there is no intention of a Paul Kagame like Truth and Reconciliation committee ever being set up. I also should add that the general public don’t care for the truth as we knew it.
Take this forum itself, it is the farthest thing from an illiterate YT shit fest, but even here, the majority of those otherwise informed, urbane, well read folks don’t even know what or where Nellie is. Won’t know a single thing about the emergency beyond what say a Wiki article tells them. The Nehru Gandhi’s have succeeded in burying and then altering history as it happened into a version most favourable to them. If you are wondering why I read about this, I am obsessed about history in general, Indian history in particular (followed by Byzantium, Rome, Political Islam, WW2 Eastern front in no particular order) and the topic of the INC era always fascinates me. If you have the time, do start with the Shah commission report, and if after that you eschew everything INC, I would not be surprised.
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gnanaozhi
August 31, 2021
Here is a declassified CIA report on the chances of an Indira govt in 81.
https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/document/cia-rdp84s00927r000300120003-6
Everything I talk about is there. Rise in communal fault lines. Rise in caste discord. All of it for wanted by Indira to retain her hold on power.
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Madan
August 31, 2021
Srinivas R: Your formulations are rational but they are also hypothetical. The electorate needs a name and a face to vote. The only other party (apart from BJP) which has a national footprint is Congress. So either of two things need to happen: (a) another party, maybe AAP, too develops a national footprint and can be a potential coalition leader or (b) Congress gets its act together. I think pessimism about either of these coming true is not unjustified.
And that answers your question about coalitions. The Rao/ABV/MMS coalitions all worked because one party had between 150-180 seats. Not large enough numbers to form a govt but large enough to dominate the coalition. These alliances worked because they were ‘led’ by one of the two national parties. If you look at all the hotchpotch coalitions like Janata Party, VP Singh/Chandrashekar or United Front govts in 96-97, they failed to survive precisely because they lacked this stabilizing force. So while I agree with you that you don’t really need the illusory political stability of a single party majority, a coalition itself cannot sustain for a term of 5 or at least 4 years if one party does not stabilize it by dint of numerical strength.
In other words: as long as people feel the only alternative to a BJP govt will be a VP Singh/Gowda coalition, they will continue to vote for the former. Worse, in their anxiety to ensure the latter doesn’t happen, they will end up gifting more seats to BJP in spite of its poor performance (which is what happened in 2019). This has a precedent too – the thumping majority secured by Indira in 1980, where she got maybe 1% less voteshare than 1971. It was a panic vote to ensure that the Janata Party chaos wouldn’t repeat.
And now I come to another key point – if a coalition lacks coherence, it can just as easily lead to poor governance as a ‘stable’ govt that has no incentive to listen to voters until the next election. The Janata Party coalition was one of the worst govts we ever had…on every front. On the economic front, they gave us the first demonetisation of independent India and also drove out MNCs from India. Hand in hand, Desai, being a Gandhian, also disbanded RAW for which Pak gleefully honoured him with Nishan-E-Pakistan.
For a coalition govt to work, again, one party needs to have a large majority of seats within the coalition and this party must in turn elect a leader as PM who enjoys the respect of all coalition partners as well as opposition leaders as well. Rao and Vajpayee had this distinction. MMS to a lesser extent in political terms but he commanded respect as an economic expert and Sonia G helped on the political side.
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Anand Raghavan
August 31, 2021
@Srinivas : It is the perception that those relatives of mine had, that I was referring to. Now it is on the opposition to change the narrative that would make those people to vote for them. As a political machine, BJP has very effective in winning elections. They were stumped by Sharad Pawar in MH. Who would be able to do that in a parliamentary election ?
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theeversriram
August 31, 2021
I must be leaving in Jupiter, Mars being too crowded.
People are really waiting for Rahul Gandhi to lead the country out of it “worst crisis”.
Good luck !
And people still have nostalgia on Indira Gandhi? She must be 104 years now, so can only imagine some 70+ people still remembering her.
And Khuswant Singh (who became MP on Congress ticket) and Shekar Gupta (who was part of secular brigade before Print) being considered as factual writers !! Great
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hari
August 31, 2021
gnanaozhi – superb comments. Agree with you on a lot of points. The clean chit that INC gets in these quarters is staggering. A Meerut based college mate of mine when he introduced himself in class (early 90’s) said that he comes from the city known for riots. You have given me some points to do research, especially about Nellie.
Completely agree with you on BJP being dumb in a lot of aspects.
What good is BJP to the Hindus if it cannot get Governments away from their Temples, when in fact it has taken control of more temples in its states like Uttarakhand. If not for SuSu I don’t think, they would have done anything for Ram Mandir as well. Fadnavis government took funds generated in Shirdi and redistributed it to other projects. The same government did not do zilch for many dilapidated temples in MH.
Madan super comment. Your Desai comment regarding disbanding of RAW comment is what makes a lot of people jittery. Given the current situation with Taliban taking over Afghanistan and Pakistan eager to take its help to cause mischief in Indian soil, I feel no alternative will be better to handle the situation better than Modi, is my 5 paisa opinion.
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Aman Basha
August 31, 2021
@gnanozhi: Again, I went through Howard Spodek’s article online and I could find nothing about Congress leaders encouraging the 1969 riots, if there was such an instance I think the heritage times article which details the government’s role during 1969 Ahmedabad would mention it. Couldn’t find Ghanshyam Shah, but the sources I have seen suggest no such thing as you say of. Did the Congress (I) take advantage of riots? That seems definite.
file:///C:/Users/abbsh/Downloads/from-gandhi-to-violence-ahmedabads-1985-riots-in-historical-perspective.pdf
Very interestingly, he praises Chidambaram as being very effective in controlling the 1986 riots quickly.
I added the Khushwant Singh quote for extra detail, the Congress did the sins of omission and commission but the RSS was the direct participant and they are culpable for 1969 too.
Nellie is something I have to read up about, and I reserve the right to comment after I know something about it. There isn’t much buried history, the North East has been turbulent and fairly disconnected from the mainland (especially the South), lot of people wouldn’t also know about Phizo and Nagaland too. India After Gandhi by Guha has details about Operation Polo and the Muslims killed there, I’m sure Nellie and Meerut were mentioned too. Anyhow, Polo was Sardar Patel’s entirely and Sardar Patel hated the Sangh and would disapprove of Modi-Shah.
The Shekhar Gupta article was to reaffirm my point that her feelings and the outcomes of her actions were different. As I already said, I am not defending Indira. To quote @Rahul:
“The system was as hostile to the Muslims and the subaltern in the times of Indira (in spite of the Haj Subsidy, LOL) – what Modi and Shah have done is to bring that hostility to our living rooms , to our friends and family.”
“Finally, the whole BJP won’t put up Muslim candidates bogeyman”
Did your selective myopia kick in when I mentioned the Shiv Sena? That Shiv Sena, with its reputation, fielded a Muslim candidate speaks volumes about the BJP’s agenda.
To further quote @Rahul:
BJP Supporters somehow think it is a gotcha to point out that Congress did similar or worse. The only difference is people weren’t falling over each other to defend the government in those times.
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Aman Basha
August 31, 2021
@hari: Yes, sir, the Government that didn’t prepare at all for the possibility of the Taliban taking over Afghanistan when it was clear as daylight and is stumbling all over the place would surely be very equipped to handle the Taliban.
It shows how bad inflation is now, when this is a 5 paise opinion.
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hari
September 1, 2021
@Aman – The only difference is people weren’t falling over each other to defend the government in those times. – ha ha – here you are making a case for Rahul Gandhi. Semma comedy
Yeah only the Left Liberal gang who are rejoicing the Taliban takeover would have better handled the situation better, I understand.
I thought current inflation is not that bad, I will take your word for it though.
Anyways brother, best wishes for forming a non-bjp government.
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Aman Basha
September 1, 2021
“you are making a case for Rahul Gandhi”
Tell me where?
“current inflation is not that bad”
Once again proving my long held point that most Modi supporters (on this blog at least) are desh bhakts chilling it out under Biden/Boris Raj.
“Left Liberal gang who are rejoicing the Taliban”
After reading this, I’m not questioning your intelligence. I’m merely denying its existence.
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hari
September 1, 2021
Aman I have a few vouchers for Doolally (https://twitter.com/godoolally – Mumbai based – every Friday they have twitter quiz where they give these vouchers to winners) pint beer, in case you are interested will send it across, cheers.
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Aman Basha
September 1, 2021
@hari: Now you’re offering beer vouchers in public to a minor 🙂
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theeversriram
September 2, 2021
@Aman, if you are really less than 18 years old, then superb writing skills and keep going.
And I can understand your idealistic stand – when I was 18, I drew up elaborate plans for land reservation for everyone in country based on a certain cut-off (borrowing ideas from land reforms and reservation in private sector).
Later on I realized all the ideas were bullshit and won’t even convince my family.
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Aman Basha
September 2, 2021
@theeversriram: I’m just a few months over 18, but in Mumbai, the drinking age is 21.
“idealistic stand”-If you think I’m an idealist, you really have gotten everything here wrong. In fact, I’m not even a leftist and my most frequent disagreements have been with Jeeva sir.
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Madan
September 2, 2021
“If you think I’m an idealist, you really have gotten everything here wrong.” – Yeah, you don’t have to be an idealist to see what’s wrong with Modi, frankly.
And as for the ‘dangerous’ left libs, here’s Naseeruddin Shah criticizing those Indian Muslims who are celebrating the rise of Taliban:
The fact that he did, though, will never be accounted for, much less mentioned, by BJP supporters because for them, anybody who criticizes Modi is at least persona non grata, if not outright anti-national. Especially if the critic is a Muslim like Shah.
BJP IT Cell also very successfully spun Owaisi’s stinging criticism of the govt’s failure to engage Taliban when they knew US was withdrawing as somehow being apologist for them (when he was in fact very rightly asking what would happen to Indian assets and investment in Afghanistan). Matlab sawal poocho toh anti national, bas.
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Yajiv
September 3, 2021
Few things.
@All : As an Indian who unfortunately spent most of his childhood & adulthood overseas, these articles and commenta have been a huge learning experience for me on India’s chequered political history. I welcome & look forward to all of them (on both sides). I especially enjoy how things seldom devolve into shoutfests in this blog. Most comments have a lot of evidence & facts behind them even if they might be ideologically motivated. Thank you all for that.
@Aman: How do you have so much maturity in your writing at age 18?! I am stunned!
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Anu Warrier
September 3, 2021
@Madan – I had kept away from this topic merely because i knew what the arguments would be. I honestly can’t believe the praises the Modi govt is getting when they got almost everything so wrong. It’s like living in an alternate reality. If I were to believe some of the comments here, then every government for the past 6+ decades has been a failure and responsible for India’s troubles, and it’s only Modi that has brought about a Ram Rajya.
I was going to post Naseer’s clip here as well. He (or indeed, people like him, will always be tarred with the ‘Left Liberal’ tag – as here) will never be credited even for consistency, let alone courage. As you so correctly put it – Sawal poocho to anti-national.
P.s. Aman – I agree/disagree with your post, but if we were sitting across each other, it would have led to a rousing and interesting discussion/debate. So, thank you. 🙂
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Aman Basha
September 3, 2021
@Anu Warrier: “rousing and interesting discussion/debate”-this is tantamount to chickening out 🙂
About the Taliban, it’s amusing how Muslims are constantly asked about their position when the damn Deobandis condemned the Taliban back in 90s, and no one is asking what our Government is doing about it, are they terrorists? Then why are we negotiating with them? Will we recognize them or won’t we? What are the conditions?
“Sawal poocho to anti-national”-Literally Nirmala Sitaraman literally said this even to Rahul Bajaj and Piyush Goyal called the Tatas anti national 🙂
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anon
September 4, 2021
@anu, why don’t you address or debate facts that you think are wrong in the thread rather than, “I can’t believe what I’m hearing, gah!!”
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Anu Warrier
September 4, 2021
@anu, why don’t you address or debate facts that you think are wrong in the thread rather than, “I can’t believe what I’m hearing, gah!!”
Says someone who doesn’t have the guts to put his name to his opinions.
My views on this subject are well-known around here. (I am indeed one of those damned ‘left liberals’ and a feminist to boot – the devil’s trifecta.)
When I choose to engage, or indeed, whether I choose to engage, is solely my prerogative.
@Aman, no, not chickening out. Just that some discussions are better had in person. Like I said, I both agree and disagree with different parts of your post. And sometimes, when we talk, it might not even be a complete (dis)agreement. That’s what I meant.
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Anuja Chandramouli
September 5, 2021
Loving the discussion on this thread! Thanks for initiating it Aman. Particularly loved Gnanaozhi and Madan’s comments. Gnanaozhi, I definitely need to look up the sources you mentioned and educate myself further on this subject. The extent of your knowledge truly boggles the mind!
As for me, it is no secret that I am a perpetual fence sitter and I still maintain that given the way things stand today, Raman aandalum, Raavanan aandalum, it isn’t going to make a big fat difference to us commoners. And while I think the liberal ideology is sound, I am less impressed with the liberal narrative and the tendency to uphold it at the expense of all else. Which is why I have zero patience with folks who are so anti – Modi, they will label those who won’t accept Raga as a suitable alternative as bhakts who deserve to be cancelled outright. That is just beyond stupid IMO. It is the same story in the West, even after Joe Biden who was hailed as a liberal savior botched up stuff beyond redemption in Afghanistan and actually has blood on his hands, he is given a pass by the Left because it is simpler to blame Trump for everything. Never mind that it was Carter (a dem pres) who armed the Mujahideen and Bush who started the forever war and Obama who continued it. Also, I don’t get folks who praise Biden for ending the war when Biden himself says he is merely following the terms of the treaty Trump signed with the Taliban. So how is it fair to crucify Trump for the exit while also commending Biden for the same? I mean, you can’t have it both ways is all I am saying. Why hate Trump on principle and insist on loving Biden though he is every bit the consummate politician churned out from the cesspool of dirty politics who pretends to uphold liberal causes while in reality, remaining solely committed only to political self – interest? This deliberate obtuseness on the part of the left is the reason extremists from the right start seeming more attractive in comparison.
Getting back to India, while I can’t stand the extremism and intolerance of the RSS and the gau rakshaks I also think we are stuck with this lot as long as the Congress insist on playing favourites with their unworthy crown Prince when they should be looking at grooming a viable PM candidate like Sachin Pilot.
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anon
September 5, 2021
@anu, I’m a her and always post as anon. yeah ok, you’re a left liberal and you choose your engagement to be “wow I can’t believe these facts that sound wrong”. okay.
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Aman Basha
September 5, 2021
“simpler to blame Trump for everything”
@Anuja, Biden is getting defense from the left, the same left that was throwing vitriol at him during the primaries and held their nose to vote for him simply because he withdrew better than Trump under Trump’s conditions. In fact, him sticking to withdrawal was surprising, I remember in the Stalin thread, there was a lot of insinuation that Biden delayed the deadline because he didn’t want to withdraw, but now he has, despite the relentless barrage from the media and the MIC. Now he’s even declassifying the 9/11 documents.
People seem to have forgotten how Trump left Iraq, throwing the Kurds at the mercy of Turkey. Compared to that, the Afghanistan exit has been far better. And do you think Trump would not have dithered in the face of such relentless media? He could barely do anything he promised.
“blood on his hands”
And if the US had chosen to break the treaty, how many more would have died? The problem is that Europe and India cannot whine that the US is leaving if they are unwilling to send soldiers, and especially if their intel failed them so badly.
For Afghanistan these two articles are (possibly) the only honest ones. The only mistake Biden made was not evacuate civilians early, but even there Ghani was delaying in the hope of pressing the US to stay. It was going to be bad any which way.
https://prospect.org/world/altercation-the-forever-nonsense-of-forever-warriors/
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Yajiv
September 5, 2021
Why is @anon giving @Isai vibes?
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Voldemort
September 5, 2021
*is the same story in the West, even after Joe Biden who was hailed as a liberal savior botched up stuff beyond redemption in Afghanistan and actually has blood on his hands, he is given a pass by the Left because it is simpler to blame Trump for everything. *
I have a genuine question (not directed to Anuja in particular). How else could have Biden done it? Wasn’t it a given that the Afghan government would collapse (albeit not this soon) once they pulled out? I see a lot of people say that Biden is no savior (which I agree with) but curious to know if there was an alternative way this could have been handled.
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Anuja Chandramouli
September 5, 2021
Aman Basha: The problem is that Europe and India cannot whine that the US is leaving if they are unwilling to send soldiers, and especially if their intel failed them so badly.
Dude, the problem was created by the US, so it falls to them to clean up the mess not look to Europe or India to shovel up the shit. And saying Biden withdrew better than Trump under Trump’s conditions is laughable given that he threw the civilians and many of those who had aided the US under the bus, not even making a half – assed attempt to help. And the colossal failure of US foreign policy is not limited to Iraq and Afghanistan alone though both proved to be costly blunders to the tune of trillions of dollars and much worse in terms of lives lost. Their bid for global hegemony hidden under a flimsy facade of an expansionist liberal ideology has had devastating consequences from before the Cold War.
Claiming to promote democracy abroad, all they have done is force their will on weaker nations with the help of CIA goombahs and military goons sporting glares and guns, though they would never stand for the same treatment even if outgunned. Can you imagine if another nation were to bomb the US, launch a drone attack, invade and seek to establish a puppet govt. of their choosing for their own good? The US seems to have learnt nothing from the colossal blunders at Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, Syria, instead they have doubled down by continuing to topple elected leaders and backing tyrants, arming terrorists and destabilizing govts. whenever and wherever it suits them. And let us not forget the powerful Israeli bloc in the US which has exacerbated the situation in Palestine and left it a hotzone of violence with peace a distant, improbable dream. Thanks to this senseless, aggressive, arrogant foreign policy, many of these smaller, weaker nations who had nothing but an abundance of pride and desire for vengeance were left with no choice but to turn to terrorism to protect their interests. And no, I don’t endorse terrorism, just saying that the US is solely responsible for the problem of terrorism which has metastized thanks to their infernal meddling and continues to do so. ISIS is just one such example.
Wrt Biden, I still feel had Trump done the exact same thing his detractors would have screamed themselves hoarse demanding his resignation or impeachment, calling him an orange haired monster who condemned thousands of innocent people to death and slavery. Whereas, that same lot feels compelled to support Biden who mourned the lives of Americans lost in the airport attack and promised retribution while the hundreds of Afghan lives lost seemed not to matter to him. Just saying he is no better nor worse than his predecessor of whom the same can be said wrt to his predecessor and so on and so forth.
In India also, we can see similar hypocrisy. On the one hand, the woke brigade will condemn the nepotism evident in Bollywood with all the outrage in the world but will insist on endorsing Raga who is the flagbearer of the nepotism brigade, a title inherited from his tyrant grandmum, who also has the dubious distinction of being a product of nepotism. Obviously.
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Aman Basha
September 5, 2021
@Anuja Chandramouli: Don’t disagree with anything you said, have said much of it myself but we differ on some points.
“hundreds of Afghan lives lost seemed not to matter to him”-It would have happened any way, there was never going to be a good ending.
“Just saying he is no better nor worse”-Again, who abandoned the Kurds and would have never allowed any refugees into the US (courtesy Stephen Miller)? Obama did drone strikes, which were bad and evil and no doubt set a new dangerous precedent, but was it better than Bush and Cheney’s war mongering? Yes a hundred times over. Even the smallest difference can save a good number of lives which cannot be overstated. This is why Biden is getting a defense, but mostly from the left and not as much by liberals.
“insist on endorsing Raga”-Again except Congress hardcore fans, who is doing this? I don’t think there is wokeness in India, a lot of the Sushant issue was shored up by the BJP for Bihar and Maharashtra. Even I have never said anything more than Rahul should be the lead campaigner because he is the most known face and the Gandhi name is the glue for the warring party factions. You have to make do with political realities.
Quite often, one has to choose the lesser of two evils in life.
PS: Any extra tea on Deepika as Draupadi 🙂
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Madan
September 6, 2021
” but was it better than Bush and Cheney’s war mongering? Yes a hundred times over” – Well he also abandoned Libya at the instruction of ‘Madam Secretary’. So he has blood on his hands. And at least Bush and Cheney were never accused of being Nobel Peace Prize winners. There most definitely is an element of woke bias in liberal media. Tony Blair never got upbraided the same way as Bush even though he too committed troops to Iraq. And it’s not just media. I remember a secular British Muslim saying she regarded Blair as a ‘good’ president. So it seems who is ‘good’ or isn’t depends very much on their stated ideology (even if they are hypocritical in applying it in practice).
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Aman Basha
September 6, 2021
@Madan: Agree, it’s obvious media, based on political leaning will have biases and also their own rationalizations as to why they defend a candidate. For many, even with Libya, Obama was still not as bad as Bush and Cheney. He was a huge disappointment vis-à-vis the expectations, but then he’s lucky to be wedged between a predecessor and successor who make him look like Black Jesus (wait, Jesus probably had the same skin tone as Obama). In a sense, he is a what if JFK had two terms and Biden is pursuing a LBJ social agenda and hopefully doesn’t do a LBJ foreign policy or resultant inflation.
Anyway, I’m sick and tired of talking about America, America all the time. I also think they’ll scrape by in the superpower contest. We’ve got a lot more pressing issues in our country.
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H. Prasanna
September 6, 2021
@Aman, I feel you have captured the framework of the campaign to defeat Modi very well in this article. The branding has to be Modi v. GANDHI, and every Gandhi’s brand needs to be invoked. I feel they have to tell the story of the country after Modi. When I see Modi, I see only someone who has never lost. To get people to the booth, they need to create a story that the people can get behind, a story that candidates across partylines can carry. I feel creating a convincing consensus of RG as a PM is more difficult.
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Aman Basha
September 7, 2021
I think Shashi knows enough Hindi to campaign in the North 🙂
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Enigma
September 7, 2021
As long as he does not sing he will be fine.
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Aman Basha
September 9, 2021
https://gulfnews.com/opinion/op-eds/uddhav-thackeray-should-be-oppositions-joint-pm-candidate-in-india-1.82117590
Interesting article, imagine Muslims or South Indians voting for a Thackeray as PM candidate 🙂
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Aman Basha
October 1, 2021
Is this the first time a reader’s write in has been prescient? Although Rahul Gandhi is taking all the wrong ideas from Indira Gandhi.
I sent this piece to the Print earlier and am seriously wondering whether this is plagiarism 🙂
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